Demand Forecasting for Anti-malarial Medicines

Contextualising Policy Change and the Impact on Demand Forecasts

Supporting Demand Forecasting for Anti-malarial Medicines

TESS is providing support to a collaboration which generates quarterly demand forecasts on antimalarial medicines, rapid diagnostic tests for malaria and artesminin (the API for recommended first line malaria treatments in Africa). This work is led by the Clinton Health Access Initiative – CHAI – in collaboration with IMS Health, UCSF and TESS Development Advisors. The work is commissioned by UNITAID.
The World Health Organization estimates that procurements of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria have risen from 11 million in 2005 to 392 million courses in 2013 (World Malaria Report 2015). This volume of product supplied on an annual basis implies very significant investments in the entire production, procurement and supply management chain. Accurate and timely forecasts play a major role in facilitating this process.
The forecasts are produced by CHAI with support from various partners. TESS’ role in this process includes:

  • scanning the malaria landscape for major changes affecting ACT uptake
  • analysis of funding and policy change
  • advice on global, regional and national dynamics

Project Details



IMS Health / CHAI


Photo credit: WHO World Malaria Report 2015

Photo credit: WHO World Malaria Report 2015